February 23, 2012
FIRST SPRING OUTLOOK FOR MANITOBA
The Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation Flood Forecast Centre’s first 2012 flood outlook shows spring flood potential remains low at this time for the Red and Souris rivers, and moderate on the Pembina and Assiniboine rivers, and in the southern Interlake.
Spring flooding is likely in portions of northern Manitoba including The Pas, where there are above‑average soil-moisture conditions and there has been significant snowfall this season.
The forecast notes that significant precipitation this spring could result in localized flooding including some portions of the upper Assiniboine and Souris river basins, and in The Pas area.
The spring flood potential is still very dependent on weather conditions from now until the spring melt. The amount of additional precipitation, the timing and rate of the spring thaw, and the timing of peak flows in Manitoba, the U.S. and other provinces will have a significant effect on flood potential.
There is a risk of significant precipitation leading to localized flooding, however, this is less likely to affect the main stems of the Red and Assiniboine rivers.
The chances of minor, localized flooding during the early part of the run-off period due to ice jams or snow blockages in drains, ditches and small streams is fairly low. Although major ice jams are unlikely to occur, the possibility cannot be ruled out, especially in the Interlake region.
Recovery efforts for the 2011 flood are still ongoing including financial compensation programs. To date, more than $500 million has been provided in flood recovery assistance through various programs such as disaster financial assistance, the Building and Recovery Action Plan, excess moisture insurance and AgriRecovery.
Snow Water Content
River Ice Conditions and Ice Jamming
Red River Main Stem
Assiniboine River Main Stem
Westman and The Pas Regions
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