Manitoba Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre reports overland flooding and tributary flows are beginning to subside across parts of southern Manitoba. Flows in the Assiniboine River are continuing to rise.
Ice is still in place on northern rivers and tributaries. A high water advisory is in place for the Carrot River near The Pas. All major rivers in southern Manitoba are ice free.
The risk of shoreline ice pileup on Manitoba’s major lakes is low for the next 48 hours. Strong winds are forecasted for April 14.
The partial closure at the Gretna dike remains in place. The partial ring dike closure at Brunkild was removed yesterday.
As of this morning, flow on the Portage Diversion channel is 20,059 cubic feet per second (cfs) or 568 cubic metres per second (cms) and flows on the Assiniboine River downstream of the diversion are 13,066 cfs (370 cms). Temporary flood protection measures are nearly complete on the lower Assiniboine River and flows will be increased to 14,000 cfs today and may be increased to 15,000 cfs (425 cms) tomorrow.
The revised Assiniboine River forecast suggests the Assiniboine and Souris rivers may peak at the same time at the Portage Reservoir. At Holland, with a weather forecast indicating no future precipitation, it is expected that flows will peak at approximately 40,000 cfs (1,133 cms) on April 12 and the same peak should reach Portage la Prairie by April 13. Crews at the Portage Diversion are still preparing the diversion for emergency flows above 25,000 cfs (708 cms). A flood watch remains in effect for the area between Portage la Prairie and Headingley.
Water levels at James Avenue were measured at 17.4 feet this morning. With the floodway in operation, water levels at James Avenue are expected to remain within the range of 17 to 17.5 ft. for the next week as flows on the Red River recede and flows on the Assiniboine River increase.
A flood warning remains in effect for the upper Assiniboine River from the Shellmouth Dam to Holland and at Pelican Lake. The Assiniboine River has crested at Brandon.
Flows on the Carrot River at Turnberry, Sask., are expected to peak at 8,000 cfs (227 cms) by April 22. Water levels on the Carrot River within Manitoba are influenced by Carrot River flows and water levels on the Saskatchewan River where the two rivers meet. Conditions will be monitored because the ice is still intact in Manitoba, making ice jamming on both rivers a concern. The backwater effect of ice jamming will influence water levels on the Carrot River. It is difficult to estimate the timing and effects of ice jams on the two rivers but the risk of ice jamming is high.
Homeowners affected by this spring’s flooding are reminded to review their home insurance. Overland flood insurance was introduced by some insurers in Manitoba in 2016.
High water levels have led to a number of road closures across the province. Avoid driving through moving water as the water depth can be unpredictable and the current can push vehicles off the road.