March 30, 2009
Flood Media Bulletin #6
Flood Forecast
· Anticipated crest forecasts from Emerson to the floodway inlet have been reduced by 0.3 metres (one foot). Crest forecasts in Winnipeg and from Selkirk to Breezy Point remain unchanged.
· The reduction in predicted crests from Emerson to Winnipeg is due to the expected continuation of cool weather until at least the end of this week which will delay melting of snow and ice, keeping tributary flows low. It is forecast that important tributaries of the Red River, such as the Red Lake River in Minnesota, will experience a second snowmelt crest after the Red River crest has passed, which means a lower crest on the Red River.
· Although the Red River crest forecast has been lowered, unusual ice conditions pose a risk for ice jams and blockages in rivers and streams that could cause over-bank flooding. In addition, frozen culverts and blocked drains are likely to cause widespread overland flooding in many areas throughout southern Manitoba. Residents are advised to continue taking precautions to flood proof their properties.
· The top of the forecast range from Emerson to Winnipeg is still very close to 1979 crests at most locations and it is stressed that preparations for preventive measures, such as ring dike closures, continue as before. Flood protection should be at 1979 flood levels plus 0.6 m (two ft.) of freeboard, due to future weather and forecast uncertainties.
· The top of the forecast range from Emerson to Winnipeg does not include the possibility of serious ice jams, which could occur, but are uncommon in this part of the river.
· The predicted crest in Winnipeg remains at 5.8 to 6.3 m (19 to 20.5 ft.) due to an above-normal risk of ice jams. If an ice jam develops in Winnipeg, the Amphibex ice breakers will be deployed to try to break up the ice.
· Predicted crests from Selkirk to Breezy Point remain unchanged as ice jams, which occur frequently, will determine crest elevations in this portion of the Red River.
· Levels of the Red River rose 0.25 m (0.8 ft.) at Emerson, 0.12 m (0.4 ft.) at Morris and .06 m (0.2 ft.) at the floodway inlet and Winnipeg during the 24 hour period ending this morning. The level declined 7.6 centimetres (a quarter foot) at Selkirk. Ice still has not moved from Drayton, North Dakota to Lake Winnipeg, with the exception of an area from Chief Peguis Bridge to near Lockport.
· An ice jam remains in the area from Lockport to Lower Fort Garry. This jam is unlikely to move until the Red River flow increases substantially or much milder weather develops. The threat of ice jamming from Selkirk to Breezy Point after ice begins to move is moderate, as extensive ice cutting and ice breaking activities have taken place in the area.
· The level at the floodway inlet this morning was 229.3 m (752.2 ft), a rise of 0.6 cm (0.2 ft) since yesterday. It is unlikely ice will move through this area until next weekend. Operation of the floodway is not likely before the majority of the ice has gone through the area in order to reduce the risk of an ice jam in the floodway itself which would reduce its capacity.
· The crest of the Red River is near Halstad, N.D., and is predicted at Grand Forks on April 3. An ice jam north of Grand Forks has resulted in a temporary overtopping of I-29 in North Dakota.
· Red River tributaries are stable due to the cold weather, however levels remain quite high due to ice blockages. Rises will resume when warmer weather returns, likely next week. Significant flooding could occur on eastern tributaries such as the Seine River, Tourond Creek, Rat River and Joubert Creek following melt of the new snow, due to ice-clogged channels. Minor flooding is possible on western tributaries, depending on the rate of melt and on rain during the run-off period.
· Much overland flooding continues in the Red River Valley and in other areas of Manitoba where run-off was well underway prior to the colder weather. The cold weather has turned many flooded fields into ice. Overland flooding will likely increase when the snow melts and these conditions are expected to continue for two to three weeks, even without additional precipitation.
· February’s rainstorm, partial thaw, then refreezing of culverts and ditches was an unprecedented condition for southern Manitoba and will continue to affect overland flooding.
· The Portage Diversion is operating and flows have been increased since yesterday to try to further alleviate water levels in Winnipeg. As well, ice-cutting equipment is working in the area of the diversion and in the Whitemud River area to help speed up the breakup of ice. The diversion redirects water from the Assiniboine River to Lake Manitoba to help lower levels on the Assiniboine from Portage to Winnipeg.
· Assiniboine River levels upstream of Portage la Prairie are declining due to the cold weather and reduced flows from the Shellmouth Reservoir. Rises will start when the melt resumes.
· Levels of the Souris River and Pembina River are relatively stable and will remain so until warmer weather develops.
Overall Flood Response
· Roseau River Anishinabe First Nation, in conjunction with the Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters (MANFF) has completed, as a precaution, an evacuation of residents to Winnipeg area hotels. The total evacuated is 704 persons, with a small contingent of essential persons remaining in the community. The ring dike around the community has not yet been closed completely.
· The Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters also co-ordinated the partial evacuation of 18 homes where access was threatened by rising creek levels on the Sioux Valley Dakota First Nation. At this time, no homes have been flooded.
· The Amphibex icebreakers continue to address ice issues on the Red River near Sugar Island and ice cutters are working in the McIvor Road area near the PTH 4 bridge.
· The province is purchasing additional steam equipment to thaw frozen culverts and it is expected to be available in the next few days. In areas where the province has responsibility, especially in ring-dike communities, provincial staff are working to keep drains from freezing with steam equipment.
· Residents in flooded areas are reminded to boil all well water before consuming it or use a safe alternative such as bottled water, until the waters totally recede and tests confirm bacterial safety. After the waters recede, testing of well water is strongly advised and the province will pay for bacterial well water testing in flooded areas.
· All residents along the Red River, or in a flood prone area, are asked to remove or secure items such as propane tanks or hazardous materials to prevent them from floating away in high water and creating a risk.
· The Red Cross registration phone line is 1-888-662-3211. It operates 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. People being evacuated must register with the Red Cross by phone.
· Public inquiries can be directed to Manitoba Government Inquiry at 1-866-626-4862.
Road Conditions
· Before travelling in flood affected areas, please check www.manitoba.ca/mit/roadinfo/index.html or call 204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237. Information about conditions in North Dakota can be found at www.fhwa.dot.gov/trafficinfo/nd.htm or by calling 1-866-696-3511.
· All motorists are advised to be aware of additional trucks, heavy equipment and work crews on many highways and roads. Drivers should slow down for crews unthawing culverts and ditches.
· Law enforcement agencies remind motorists to obey road barriers set up to control traffic safety. Water levels can change quickly and roads may have barriers on them even if there is only the potential for flooding. Driving on a closed road is a risk to individuals and is against the law.
Flood information, the latest road information for Manitoba and a link for North Dakota highway conditions are also available at www.gov.mb.ca.
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