April 2, 2009
Flood Media Bulletin #9
Flood Forecast
· Little or no precipitation is expected for the next five days although there is a chance of more snow in the Fargo area on Saturday. Milder temperatures are expected to arrive next Tuesday. It is expected that most of the snow cover in southern Manitoba will melt between April 7 and 10.
· There is no change in the forecast for the Red River. Recent snowfall will produce somewhat greater flows on Manitoba tributaries following the melt but this will be offset by somewhat lower flows coming from the United States.
· Based on a slow melt and little additional precipitation, Red River crests will be higher than those of 2006 but lower than those of 1979. If a 25-millimetre rainstorm were to occur in Manitoba next week on top of snowmelt, levels would rise very close to those of 1979. Ice conditions will likely produce levels higher than those of 1979 in the city of Winnipeg and points north of Winnipeg. The forecast is being reviewed on a daily basis and an update will be issued if expectations change.
· The additional snow which fell during the past few days will increase overland flooding in the Red River Valley and may cause some tributaries of the Red River to overflow, mainly due to ice blockages. Serious flooding on the tributaries is unlikely unless ice jams develop.
Emerson to the Floodway Inlet
· River ice is likely to start moving between April 8 and 10. Crests in this portion of the river are expected to occur under open water conditions after the ice has moved out with levels between those of 2006 and 1979. There is only a small risk of ice jams which could cause levels to temporarily exceed those of 1979. The crest is expected at Emerson about April 8 and at St. Adolphe about April 15.
· During the 24-hour period ending this morning, levels on the Red River rose 0.4 metres (1.2 feet) at Emerson, 0.2 m (0.7 ft.) at Morris and changed very little at the floodway inlet. The level at the floodway inlet this morning was 229.38 m (752.56 ft.) with a flow of 32,200 cubic feet per second (cfs). About 1,000 cfs was flowing naturally into the floodway even though the gates have not been raised.
City of Winnipeg
· The river level in downtown Winnipeg fell 7.6 centimetres (a quarter foot) to 5.19 m (17.04 ft.) during the 24-hour period ending this morning, mainly due to reduced flows on the Assiniboine River following operation of the Portage Diversion. Rises are expected to resume within a day or two and will become more rapid next week.
· Ice is expected to move out of the city and the floodway inlet area April 8 to 9. A crest of 5.9 to 6.3 m (19.5 to 20.5 ft.) could occur just prior to ice movement and the start of floodway operations. The threat of ice jamming in the city is considerable due to the large number of bridges and the above average ice strength. While ice jams have not raised river levels in the city by more than 0.5 m (1.5 ft.) in recent history, it is possible that a somewhat greater rise could occur this year due to the strong ice conditions. Levels after ice has moved out will be below 5.8 m (19 ft.) at James Avenue.
Lockport to Breezy Point
· The ice jam at Lower Fort Garry continues to subside, but much ice remains in the area from Lockport to near Selkirk. It is unlikely that levels from Lockport to Lower Fort Garry will rise above those experienced last week since increased river flow will likely move out existing ice. Winter ice is still in place from Selkirk to Breezy Point.
· Crests in this portion of the river will depend very much on the occurrence and severity of ice jams which are unpredictable. Ice cutting and breaking activities have reduced the risk of serious ice jams developing.
· The Red River level declined 7.6 cm (a quarter foot) at Lockport and rose three cm (a tenth of a foot) at Selkirk since yesterday morning.
Assiniboine River and Other Areas
· The flow on the Assiniboine River at Portage la Prairie was 5,610 cfs this morning, of which 2,820 cfs was diverted into Lake Manitoba. The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 200 cfs.
· River levels in western Manitoba and the Interlake are quite low and stable. Rises will develop next week following warmer temperatures and snowmelt.
Flood Response
· An additional 10 rapid response trailers have been ordered. Eight of the trailers will have flood tube dams and two will have chemical containment dams. There are also 1,000 more Tiger dams ordered which are 15.25 m (50 ft.) in length and 0.5 m (18 inches high). In addition, a total of 460 m (15,000 lineal ft.) of larger one-metre (three-ft.) high flood tubes called Aquadams will arrive on April 7 and another 10,000 feet will be delivered on April 10.
· The Amphibex ice breakers are making good progress today north of Sugar Island near Selkirk to help prevent potential ice jams.
· The ice-cutting program is complete as the ice near shore is not stable enough to support equipment. One new machine was delivered and tested near Netley Creek. The ice cutters have cut approximately 6.5 kilometres of ice at strategic locations between Selkirk and Netley Creek.
· There are currently 11 steamer units working in southern Manitoba. Another 13 will be operational when road conditions improve. An additional 13 units will begin running when prepped or repaired to run in current weather conditions.
· Manitoba Hydro is operating the Selkirk Thermal Electric Plant to increase the melt rate on the Red River north of the plant. Manitoba Hydro will be monitoring ice conditions to determine the benefit of operating the plant.
· To date, there are 212 provincial staff working on flood preparations and response. Approximately 470 public calls have been fielded by the flood liaison offices in Morris and Winnipeg and through Manitoba Government Inquiry.
Evacuations
· Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters (MANFF) in consultation with Roseau River First Nation residents have undertaken a partial return of evacuees to their homes. The MANFF is co‑ordinating this return process. At this time, 481 residents remain in Winnipeg.
· A partial evacuation of 28 homes on the Sioux Valley Dakota First Nation remains in place. Affected residents are in Virden. Local road access on the First Nation has been threatened by rising creek levels, but no homes have been flooded.
Road Conditions
· Once snow and ice begins to melt, road conditions can change very quickly. Before travelling in flood-prone areas, check www.manitoba.ca or call 204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237.
· In North Dakota, I-29 north of Grand Forks is closed. The most up-to-date information on conditions in North Dakota can be found at www.fhwa.dot.gov/trafficinfo/nd.htm or by calling 1‑866-696-3511.
· Vehicles hauling equipment and/or materials for flood responses can carry some loads up to Level 1 road restrictions on restricted highways without a permit but should use routes that use the least amount of restricted roads. Check Manitoba’s spring road restriction site www.gov.mb.ca/mit/srr/index.html for complete details.
· Vehicles exceeding Level 1 road restrictions require a permit, and can contact Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation, Permit Services during normal office hours (Monday through Friday from 7:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.) at 204-945-3961 or toll free 1-877-812-0009. Based on the emergent flood situation, Permit Services will also be open Saturday and Sunday, April 4 and 5 from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. to assist carriers.
Flood information is available at www.manitoba.ca
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