April 13, 2009
Flood Media Bulletin #23
Flood Forecast
· Due to rain and higher tributary flows, the Red River is now expected to reach 1979 levels in much of the Red River Valley from Letellier to the floodway inlet. This is well below 1997 levels but above 2006 levels. This means that even though ice has moved out, the flood situation remains serious and vigilance is required throughout the flood zone.
· Rain amounts for Easter Sunday ranged from 5 to 10 mm over most areas of southern Manitoba. A further 5-10 m or rain is expected on Thursday
City of Winnipeg
· River levels in Winnipeg are expected to rise again resulting in a crest near 6.4 metres (21 feet) late this week. It now appears that the flow crest on the Assiniboine River at Headingley will occur at about the same time as the flow crest coming from St. Adolphe, resulting in the high crest in Winnipeg. Yesterday’s rain and Thursday’s expected rain will add somewhat to local streams like the La Salle River and Sturgeon Creek, which are already high and will further add to the crest at Winnipeg.
· The river level at James Avenue this morning was 5.9 m (19.2 ft.), a decline of 0.24 m (0.8 ft.) since yesterday morning.
Lockport to Breezy Point
· The serious ice jam which produced record high levels in the Breezy Point and Petersfield areas yesterday has moved further north and into Netley Marsh. As a result, river levels have declined up to 0.9 m (three ft.) from Breezy Point to Selkirk. Levels will continue to fall for the next two days and will then rise somewhat due to increasing river flows. The flow crest will be much lower than that experienced during the ice jams and is not expected to cause any renewed flooding from Lockport to Breezy Point.
Emerson to St. Adolphe
· Crest forecasts have been raised somewhat further because of higher tributary flows and the extended crest at Emerson which is providing higher volumes of water to fill up the Red River Valley. Yesterday’s rain and Thursday’s predicted rain are also adding to the crest.
· Crests from St. Jean Baptiste to the floodway inlet are now expected to be similar to those of 1979.
· The crest will be later and is now expected at Morris on Friday and at St. Adolphe on the weekend.
· Levels rose three centimetres (0.1 feet) at Emerson, and 0.24 m (0.8 ft.) at Morris during the
24-hour period ending this morning.
24-hour period ending this morning.
· Levels in the United States portion declined slightly from Halstad to Drayton but rose somewhat in the Fargo area.
· So far this spring, the Red River has risen 11.2 m (36.6 ft.) at Emerson, 9.7 m (32.5 ft.) at Morris and 9.8 m (32.2 ft.) at the floodway inlet so far this spring.
Floodway Inlet
· The water level upstream of the floodway inlet this morning was 233.2 m (764.92 ft.), a rise of
0.6 m (two ft.) since yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was estimated at 36,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 82,200 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
0.6 m (two ft.) since yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was estimated at 36,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 82,200 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
Assiniboine River
· Ice is moving in areas between PTH 34 and Portage la Prairie. Some ice flows have reached the Portage Reservoir and are causing some difficulties with the operation of the Portage Diversion during ice runs. The peak of the ice run is expected at Portage la Prairie tonight or tomorrow.
· The Portage Diversion will be operated to minimize flows on the Assiniboine River to Winnipeg as best possible. The intent is to keep river flows to 2,000 cfs to prevent ice jamming from Portage la Prairie to Winnipeg and to reduce river levels in Winnipeg. However, this may not be possible and brief river flows of up to 7,000 cfs are possible if the ice run is strong.
· Minor flooding continues along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Griswold. The crest is still in the Miniota area and additional rises of 0.3 to 0.91 metres (one to three ft.) are expected in the portion from Virden to Brandon with crests late this week.
· The flow on the Assiniboine River at Portage la Prairie was 11,650 cfs this morning, of which 6,600 cfs was diverted into Lake Manitoba. The flow in the river downstream of the Portage Diversion was 5,050 cfs this morning.
· Some flooding may occur on Assiniboine tributaries from Brandon to Birtle later this week.
· The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 200 cfs. The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir rose 0.26 m (0.85 ft.) since yesterday morning and stood at 424.2 m (1,391.85 ft.) this morning. The level is expected to rise to 426.7 m (1,400 ft.) by the end of the month.
Souris River
· Levels of the Souris River continue to rise slowly but the rate of rise will increase during the next 10 days. Over-bank flows have developed in the Coulter area and will develop in areas further north by late next week. A crest exceeding that of 1999 is now expected at the end of the month or in early May. Significant rain is predicted for the watershed this Thursday.
Other Rivers
· Minor flooding has developed following recent snowmelt and yesterday’s rain. Flooding will be similar in magnitude to that of 2007. Significant rises have developed on the Icelandic and Fisher rivers which are being closely monitored. Some diking is underway at the Peguis First Nation and the community of Fisher River, where ice often causes water to back up and flood low-lying properties.
· Levels of the Pembina River have increased quite sharply with a rise of one m (3.2 ft.) at
La Rivière during the past two days. A crest of about 4,500 cfs is expected at Windygates this Thursday and a second crest of 7,000 cfs is expected around April 25. Flooding of the Pembina Valley from Rock Lake to La Rivière is anticipated with levels somewhat lower than that those of 2006. Difficulties are not likely in the Gretna area but close monitoring will be required. Rock Lake has risen to 407.2 m (1,336 ft.) and is now expected to crest near 407.9 m (1,338.5 ft.) about April 20.
La Rivière during the past two days. A crest of about 4,500 cfs is expected at Windygates this Thursday and a second crest of 7,000 cfs is expected around April 25. Flooding of the Pembina Valley from Rock Lake to La Rivière is anticipated with levels somewhat lower than that those of 2006. Difficulties are not likely in the Gretna area but close monitoring will be required. Rock Lake has risen to 407.2 m (1,336 ft.) and is now expected to crest near 407.9 m (1,338.5 ft.) about April 20.
· The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
· The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Overland Flooding
· Overland flooding continues in many portions of the Red River Valley, especially in areas from the Red River eastward to the Ontario boundary and this will continue until next week. Streams will subside by late this week unless significant rain develops. Minor overbank flows may occur in low-lying areas of many streams during for the rest of this week.
· The provincial government has taken action to minimize overland flooding by steaming frozen culverts and opening blocked drains.
· Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship at:
Evacuations
· An ice jam caused unprecedented flooding in the Petersfield area yesterday. So far, it appears
21 homes or cottages have water damage. Water levels in the area have dropped this morning. Permanent dikes built in 2005 to address high levels from Lake Winnipeg were overtopped.
21 homes or cottages have water damage. Water levels in the area have dropped this morning. Permanent dikes built in 2005 to address high levels from Lake Winnipeg were overtopped.
· The ice jam also triggered a mandatory evacuation in the Netley Creek area last night affecting 117 properties.
· A total of 122 properties (43 permanent homes) homes in the Breezy Point area have been evacuated. Damage in this area is being assessed.
· The RM of St. Andrews has a mandatory evacuation order in place for properties north of
1621 Breezy Point Rd. The mandatory evacuation order for other areas of Breezy Point and the Netley Creek area have been lifted.
1621 Breezy Point Rd. The mandatory evacuation order for other areas of Breezy Point and the Netley Creek area have been lifted.
· In the RM of St. Clements, 27 homes and 37 people were evacuated. The rural municipality is beginning a stage re-entry later today. Yesterday, 10 homes were temporarily evacuated at McIvor Lane but residents have now re-entered.
· One home in the RM of Rosser was evacuated because of overland flooding.
· All evacuees are strongly urged to register with the Red Cross toll-free registration phone line at
1-888-662-3211 which operates 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. This will help connect people with their municipalities and other information about the flood.
1-888-662-3211 which operates 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. This will help connect people with their municipalities and other information about the flood.
Flood Response
· Ring dike levels in the valley are being assessed based on the current flood forecast. A partial closure of the ring dike at Dominion City continues and a partial closure at Riverside is under consideration.
· PTH 75 from Morris to St. Jean Baptiste is closed and inaccessible to emergency vehicles.
· Road conditions are changing quickly. Check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or call 204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237.
· The Manitoba government is proceeding with provincial Disaster Financial Assistance (DFA) for damage from this year’s spring flooding. DFA is generally available for basic and essential costs, such as evacuation costs, costs to prevent or limit imminent damage, and for non-insurable damage to essential property such as principal residences, buildings and other non-insurable losses essential to the operation of eligible farms and small businesses. Individuals are encouraged to first seek assistance through individual insurance claims. More information is available at www.manitoba.ca.
· The province has 37 steamers to thaw frozen culverts and drains across southern Manitoba.
· There are three Flood Liaison Offices in operation. They are open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. and are located in Winnipeg (945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon
(204-729-1220).
(204-729-1220).
Flood information is available at www.manitoba.ca.
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