Archived News Releases

July 8, 2011

Flood Forecast Summary

Lakes

• There are revised forecasts for Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin, taking into account the favourable weather conditions experienced recently and in the short-term forecast, as well as the lowering of the Assiniboine River to around 17,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) on Monday, July 11.  The wind-eliminated forecasted levels for the lakes are as follows and are weather dependant:

Lake Winnipeg:  717 feet around mid-July.  (Source:  Manitoba Hydro)

Lake Winnipegosis:  between 835 ft. and 835.5 ft.

Lake Pineimuta:  between 809.3 ft. and 809.6 ft. around the end of July.

Lake Manitoba:  between 817.3 ft. and 817.5 ft. around mid-July.

Lake St. Martin:  between 805.9 ft. and 806.1 ft. around the beginning of August.

Dauphin Lake:  peaked at 860.7 ft. between June 18 and 21.

• Environment Canada has issued a strong wind warning for Lake Manitoba and the North Basin of Lake Winnipeg.
• The provincial wind set-up alerts forecast for today include:
• The provincial wind set-up alerts forecast for tomorrow include:
  • High wind set-up alert is issued for the north shore and the east shore of the north basin of Lake Manitoba.  This includes communities such as Homebrook and Steeprock.
  • Moderate wind set-up alert is issued for the east shore of the North Basin through the Narrows, and the east and west shores of the South Basin of Lake Winnipeg, as well as the east shores of Lake Winnipeg.  This includes communities such as Meadow Portage, Crane River, Ebb and Flow First Nation, Sandy Bay, Vogar, Lundar Beach, St. Laurent, Victoria Beach and O’Hanly.

 

• The estimated outflow from the Fairford River water control structure is 20,700 cfs today.  The structure continues to operate at full capacity due to the high level of Lake Manitoba.
• The water level on Rock Lake decreased by 0.13 ft. since yesterday to 1,334.72 ft.  The water level on Pelican Lake remained the same from July 6 at 1,352.65 ft. on July 7.  The outlet at Pelican Lake is operating at full capacity with all three gates fully open.

Assiniboine River

• The Assiniboine River upstream of Portage la Prairie is rising in response to the large flows from the Souris River basin.  The inflow into Portage la Prairie is forecast to reach 41,000 to 42,000 cfs between July 8 and 9.
• An operation at Shellmouth Dam was made yesterday to increase the conduit outflow by 600 cfs.  Another operation is planned for today to increase the conduit flow by an additional 400 cfs.  No operations will be made over the weekend and additional operations will be assessed on Monday.  The current outflow from the Shellmouth Reservoir consists of the conduit at 3,300 cfs and the spillway at 40 cfs, which totals 3,340 cfs total outflow.

Souris River

• The Souris River has crested in Manitoba. The table below lists the spring, maximum June and July peaks and identifies the maximum peaks observed this year.

 

	Melita	Souris	Wawanesa
Spring Peak
- Flow (cfs)	16,800	18,000	19,000
- Level (ft.)	1,411.64	1,359.86	1,157.97
- Date	April 22	April 23	April 26
June Peak
- Flow (cfs)	15,650	20,300	25,600
- Level (ft.)	1,411.35	1,361.13	1,160.63
- Date	June 10	June 15	June 16
July 2011 Maximum Peak
- Flow (cfs)	26,800	28,300	28,300
- Level (ft.)	1,413.39	1,364.68	1161.88
- Date	July 4	July 5	July 6

• The Plum Creek at Souris decreased 0.08 ft. since yesterday to 1,372.91 ft.  A flood warning for all reaches of the Oak and Plum Lake system, and on Plum Creek to the Souris River including the town of Souris remains in effect. 

Saskatchewan River and Carrot River

• Water levels on the Saskatchewan River at The Pas increased 0.03 ft. since yesterday to 856.61 ft. with a flow of 80,900 cfs.  Due to the favourable weather experienced over the past two weeks, the flood potential at The Pas has been significantly diminished.  The forecast peak water levels at The Pas are now expected to be in the range of 856.8 to 857.3 ft. with the peak occurring between July 10 and 16.  The water levels are forecast to steadily increase from the current levels to reach the forecast peak.
• The forecast peak water levels on the Carrot River will be affected by the peak water level on the Saskatchewan River from the downstream end of the Carrot River to about Mile 18.  The forecast peak water levels in that portion of the Carrot River are 857.7 to 858.2 ft., expected to occur between July 10 and 16.  Upstream of Mile 18 under favourable conditions, or no rain, the water levels will remain at the current levels.  Under unfavourable conditions, the level would be expected to rise by up to three ft.

Red River

• Water levels on the Red River at James Avenue in Winnipeg have increased by 0.02 ft since yesterday to 17.64 ft.  Flows at James Avenue this morning were approximately 50,600 cfs.  The Red River is still rising but will stay within its banks.
• The Red River Floodway inlet control structure was operated at 9:30 a.m. yesterday.  The flow upstream of the control structure is currently 32,670 cfs, the water elevation at the inlet is 751.37 ft. and the flow in the floodway channel is currently at 600 cfs.
• Elevations at the floodway inlet are expected to peak at 752.4 to 753 ft. between July 10 and 12.  Due to floodway operations, James Avenue water levels have stabilized and are gradually declining.  The Red River has crested upstream of Morris but flows are still gradually rising downstream of Morris.

For more information, see www.manitoba.ca/flooding.  The most up-to-date highway information is at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo or 1-877-MBRoads (1-877-627-6237) and on Twitter by following @MBGov.

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Après la publication de chaque rapport sur les inondations, les renseignements sont mis à jour en français dès que possible. 

Pour les consulter, allez à www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardship/floodinfo/forecasts_reports.html puis cliquez sur « Daily Flood.